Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 5.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 97¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 26

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

-$7.27

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 97.4¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares12,539

Combined PnL-$9.74

Over2 traders

Total Value$25.82

Total Shares287

Combined PnL+$2.47

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 85¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$104.32	66% 190-98 (288)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 83¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$108.54	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 83¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	50% 9398-9322 (18720)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 92.7¢	$796.75	$812.23	+$15.48	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 89¢	$445	$415	-$30	51% 1114-1067 (2181)
StudyPrediction<$100	Underavg 82¢	$45.87	$46.43	+$0.56	53% 4327-3811 (8138)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$19.11	$21.66	+$1.91	55% 2171-1792 (3963)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.3¢	$3.6	$4.16	+$0.56	50% 11018-11200 (22218)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$5,914.56

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$104.32

Record

66%

190-98 (288)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,632.02

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$108.54

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,160.34

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9398-9322 (18720)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$796.75

Value

$812.23

PnL

+$15.48

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$445

Value

$415

PnL

-$30

Record

51%

1114-1067 (2181)

StudyPrediction<$100

Under

Invested

$45.87

Value

$46.43

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

4327-3811 (8138)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.11

Value

$21.66

PnL

+$1.91

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.6

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.56

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.