Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 71¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 26

Over30¢Under70¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$26.82

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 70.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares6,480

Combined PnL-$27.68

Over2 traders

Total Value$50.48

Total Shares171

Combined PnL+$0.86

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Underavg 71¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$30.19	50% 209-206 (415)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 70¢	$307.24	$309.43	+$2.19	51% 21726-21125 (42851)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$45.82	$46.61	+$0.79	60% 39756-26331 (66087)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$3.81	$3.87	+$0.07	50% 10817-10949 (21766)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 70¢	$23.33	$1.66	+$0.32	58% 37344-27188 (64532)

Kyn008

Under

Invested

$4,287.43

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$30.19

Record

50%

209-206 (415)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$307.24

Value

$309.43

PnL

+$2.19

Record

51%

21726-21125 (42851)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.82

Value

$46.61

PnL

+$0.79

Record

60%

39756-26331 (66087)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.81

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

10817-10949 (21766)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$23.33

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.