Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$4.1K
$47.32
50.2¢ → 51.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$42.71 | 50% 209-206 (415) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 48.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$10.13 | 51% 21714-21117 (42831) |
YO yohan75 | Underavg 51¢ | $1.4K | $693.14 | -$6.86 | 52% 246-224 (470) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $52.64 | $53.73 | +$1.1 | 58% 37320-27172 (64492) |
KL kleomarcusCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $50 | $24.75 | +$0.25 | 62% 1583-951 (2534) |
Invested
$2,135.28
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$42.71
Record
50%
209-206 (415)
Invested
$1,182.33
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$10.13
Record
51%
21714-21117 (42831)
Invested
$1,372.55
Value
$693.14
PnL
-$6.86
Record
52%
246-224 (470)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$52.64
Value
$53.73
PnL
+$1.1
Record
58%
37320-27172 (64492)
Invested
$50
Value
$24.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
62%
1583-951 (2534)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.