Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 71¢ · $907 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 100%
$907.45
$18.89
69.5¢ → 71¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 71%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 69.5¢ | $697.23 | $712.29 | +$15.06 | 58% 34591-25199 (59790) |
CA Cannae | Overavg 69.8¢ | $130.87 | $133.04 | +$2.17 | 53% 14291-12537 (26828) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $53.82 | $55.38 | +$1.56 | 56% 21078-16865 (37943) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 70¢ | $6.65 | $6.74 | +$0.09 | 50% 8091-8124 (16215) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$697.23
Value
$712.29
PnL
+$15.06
Record
58%
34591-25199 (59790)
Invested
$130.87
Value
$133.04
PnL
+$2.17
Record
53%
14291-12537 (26828)
Invested
$53.82
Value
$55.38
PnL
+$1.56
Record
56%
21078-16865 (37943)
Invested
$6.65
Value
$6.74
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
8091-8124 (16215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.