Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 89¢ · $703 held · ended Oct 25

Over89¢Under11¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$702.89

Combined PnL

$6.04

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 88.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over89%

Under12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$604.08

Total Shares686

Combined PnL-$2.2

Under2 traders

Total Value$98.8

Total Shares823

Combined PnL+$8.23

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 88¢	$332.64	$332.64	+$0	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
PU purplegatto	Overavg 89¢	$234.96	$232.32	-$2.64	49% 5305-5425 (10730)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$51.16	$55.81	+$4.65	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$39.4	$42.98	+$3.58	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 87¢	$38.68	$39.12	+$0.44	57% 23972-18438 (42410)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$332.64

Value

$332.64

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

purplegatto

Over

Invested

$234.96

Value

$232.32

PnL

-$2.64

Record

49%

5305-5425 (10730)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.16

Value

$55.81

PnL

+$4.65

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.4

Value

$42.98

PnL

+$3.58

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$38.68

Value

$39.12

PnL

+$0.44

Record

57%

23972-18438 (42410)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.