Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 0.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 88¢ · $46K held · ended Oct 26

Over88¢Under12¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.6K

Combined PnL

$7.5K

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 88.4¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over88%

Under12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$21.8K

Total Shares173,568

Combined PnL+$6.9K

Over4 traders

Total Value$23.5K

Total Shares25,907

Combined PnL+$630.53

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 7.6¢	$14.8K	$21.4K	+$6.7K	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 85.9¢	$10.5K	$10.8K	+$300.89	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
RN1	Overavg 82.4¢	$9.4K	$9.5K	+$81.32	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
BB BBQChickenisthebesttt	Overavg 81.4¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$179.7	58% 532-387 (919)
fxwd12345	Overavg 82.2¢	$913.5	$982.12	+$68.62	68% 1374-640 (2014)
FO forrestgumperCTR	Underavg 0.5¢	$10	$232	+$222	48% 569-607 (1176)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 13.3¢	$212.01	$189.84	-$22.17	50% 31550-31196 (62746)
└ Under leg	Underavg 13.3¢	$149.32	$129.97	-$19.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 92.6¢	$62.69	$59.88	-$2.81
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 16.7¢	$102.95	$71.32	-$31.63	50% 10147-10036 (20183)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 15.8¢	$67.58	$54.12	-$13.47	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 6.6¢	$14.27	$25.16	+$10.89	61% 8719-5662 (14381)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 16.6¢	$2.05	$1.43	-$0.62	55% 2195-1816 (4011)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$14,762.39

Value

$21.4K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$10,533.01

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$300.89

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

RN1

Over

Invested

$9,388.97

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$81.32

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

BBQChickenisthebesttt

Over

Invested

$2,074.48

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$179.7

Record

58%

532-387 (919)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$913.5

Value

$982.12

PnL

+$68.62

Record

68%

1374-640 (2014)

forrestgumperCTR

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$232

PnL

+$222

Record

48%

569-607 (1176)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$212.01

Value

$189.84

PnL

-$22.17

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

Both legs:

Under$149.3213.3¢-$19.35

Over$62.6992.6¢-$2.81

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$102.95

Value

$71.32

PnL

-$31.63

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.58

Value

$54.12

PnL

-$13.47

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.27

Value

$25.16

PnL

+$10.89

Record

61%

8719-5662 (14381)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$0.62

Record

55%

2195-1816 (4011)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.9%

88.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.