Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 1.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 0.5¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
$4.8K
$139.17
52.5¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 54.3¢ | $3.6K | $3.5K | -$22.88 | 50% 31550-31196 (62746) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 46.4¢ | $855.79 | $996.95 | +$141.16 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
KL kleomarcus<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $71.5 | $74 | +$2.42 | 62% 1600-963 (2563) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 60.5¢ | $59.92 | $53.46 | -$6.46 | 55% 2195-1816 (4011) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $39.86 | $48.25 | +$8.39 | 61% 8719-5662 (14381) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $28.91 | $29.55 | +$0.64 | 64% 920-513 (1433) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100 | Underavg 1¢ | $0.3 | $16.2 | +$15.9 | 48% 4363-4810 (9173) |
Invested
$3,561.93
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$22.88
Record
50%
31550-31196 (62746)
Invested
$855.79
Value
$996.95
PnL
+$141.16
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Invested
$71.5
Value
$74
PnL
+$2.42
Record
62%
1600-963 (2563)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$59.92
Value
$53.46
PnL
-$6.46
Record
55%
2195-1816 (4011)
poshposh<$100Invested
$39.86
Value
$48.25
PnL
+$8.39
Record
61%
8719-5662 (14381)
Invested
$28.91
Value
$29.55
PnL
+$0.64
Record
64%
920-513 (1433)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$16.2
PnL
+$15.9
Record
48%
4363-4810 (9173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.