Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Olympique Lyonnais (67%) · Olympique Lyonnais at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Paris Saint-Germain FC16¢Olympique Lyonnais84¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Olympique Lyonnais

Consensus Traders

Olympique Lyonnais 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$3.43

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 84¢

+20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOlympique Lyonnais at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Olympique Lyonnais

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Paris Saint-Germain FC16%

Olympique Lyonnais84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Olympique Lyonnais4 traders

Total Value$426.87

Total Shares616

Combined PnL-$2.63

Paris Saint-Germain FC2 traders

Total Value$106.8

Total Shares334

Combined PnL+$6.06

Olympique Lyonnais — 67%Paris Saint-Germain FC — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 26.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$152.16	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
└ Olympique Lyonnais leg	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 73.7¢	$637.28	$687.27	+$49.99
└ Paris Saint-Germain FC leg	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 26.7¢	$871.16	$669.01	-$202.15
0xheavy888	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 68.5¢	$274	$272	-$2	56% 6708-5376 (12084)
JI jiafanCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 29.7¢	$92.88	$100.08	+$5.64	59% 1435-981 (2416)
FO foooool<$100	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 71¢	$100	$99.3	-$0.7	50% 9642-9563 (19205)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 72.7¢	$32.7	$32.63	-$0.08	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 76¢	$22.8	$22.95	+$0.15	50% 9398-9322 (18720)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 30¢	$6.3	$6.72	+$0.42	55% 2171-1792 (3963)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$1,508.44

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$152.16

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

Both legs:

Olympique Lyonnais$637.2873.7¢+$49.99

Paris Saint-Germain FC$871.1626.7¢-$202.15

0xheavy888

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$274

Value

$272

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

6708-5376 (12084)

jiafanCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$92.88

Value

$100.08

PnL

+$5.64

Record

59%

1435-981 (2416)

foooool<$100

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$100

Value

$99.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

50%

9642-9563 (19205)

UpTheBlues<$100

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$32.7

Value

$32.63

PnL

-$0.08

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

SnakeBall<$100

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$22.8

Value

$22.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

9398-9322 (18720)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.72

PnL

+$0.42

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

Research grade

NeutralOlympique Lyonnais at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Olympique Lyonnais

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Olympique Lyonnais wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.