Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Olympique Lyonnais, while the market favors Paris Saint-Germain FC (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Olympique Lyonnais (60%) · Olympique Lyonnais at 49¢ · $193 held · ended Oct 25

Paris Saint-Germain FC51¢Olympique Lyonnais49¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Olympique Lyonnais

Consensus Traders

Olympique Lyonnais 60%

Total Value

$193.42

Combined PnL

$4.4

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 49¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOlympique Lyonnais at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Olympique Lyonnais

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Paris Saint-Germain FC 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Paris Saint-Germain FC51%

Olympique Lyonnais49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Olympique Lyonnais3 traders

Total Value$160.97

Total Shares328

Combined PnL+$2.76

Paris Saint-Germain FC2 traders

Total Value$32.45

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$1.64

Olympique Lyonnais — 60%Paris Saint-Germain FC — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CannaeCTR	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 48¢	$101.76	$102.82	+$1.06	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 49.2¢	$63.87	$35.35	+$2	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 46¢	$29.4	$30.99	+$1.6	50% 9301-9249 (18550)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 49.1¢	$23.1	$22.79	-$0.3	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
HRTrading<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 47¢	$1.41	$1.46	+$0.05	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

CannaeCTR

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$101.76

Value

$102.82

PnL

+$1.06

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$63.87

Value

$35.35

PnL

+$2

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

SnakeBall<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$29.4

Value

$30.99

PnL

+$1.6

Record

50%

9301-9249 (18550)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$23.1

Value

$22.79

PnL

-$0.3

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

HRTrading<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.46

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

NeutralOlympique Lyonnais at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Olympique Lyonnais

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Paris Saint-Germain FC 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Olympique Lyonnais wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.