Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Paris Saint-Germain FC (83%) · Paris Saint-Germain FC at 99¢ · $23K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Paris Saint-Germain FC
6
Paris Saint-Germain FC 83%
$22.8K
-$6.41
99¢ → 99.1¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralParis Saint-Germain FC at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 99¢ | $20.6K | $20.6K | +$0.05 | 52% 2037-1856 (3893) |
 HRTrading | Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 99.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$1.25 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
 NooseracCTR | Olympique Lyonnaisavg 0.9¢ | $360.54 | $354.99 | -$5.56 | 52% 5609-5162 (10771) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 99¢ | $325.79 | $326.12 | +$0.33 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
LU LuckyLoo | Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 98.9¢ | $156.82 | $156.91 | +$0.09 | 50% 10896-11050 (21946) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 99.1¢ | $96.13 | $96.06 | -$0.07 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
Invested
$20,613.73
Value
$20.6K
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
2037-1856 (3893)
HRTradingInvested
$1,238.74
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$1.25
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
NooseracCTRInvested
$360.54
Value
$354.99
PnL
-$5.56
Record
52%
5609-5162 (10771)
Invested
$325.79
Value
$326.12
PnL
+$0.33
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
Invested
$156.82
Value
$156.91
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
10896-11050 (21946)
Invested
$96.13
Value
$96.06
PnL
-$0.07
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.