Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Paris Saint-Germain FC (20%) · Paris Saint-Germain FC at 97¢ · $33K held · ended Oct 25

Olympique Lyonnais3¢Paris Saint-Germain FC97¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Consensus Traders

Paris Saint-Germain FC 20%

Total Value

$33.1K

Combined PnL

-$57.27

Research grade

NeutralParis Saint-Germain FC at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Paris Saint-Germain FC

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Olympique Lyonnais3%

Paris Saint-Germain FC97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Paris Saint-Germain FC1 trader

Total Value$31.9K

Total Shares33,227

Combined PnL-$178.84

Olympique Lyonnais4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares30,063

Combined PnL+$121.57

Paris Saint-Germain FC — 20%Olympique Lyonnais — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 96.5¢	$32.1K	$31.9K	-$178.84	52% 2025-1848 (3873)
NooseracCTR	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 3.6¢	$900	$1.0K	+$100	52% 5559-5099 (10658)
CA CannaeCTR	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 3¢	$130.23	$147.93	+$17.7	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 3.5¢	$22.23	$25.4	+$3.18	50% 10665-10792 (21457)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Olympique Lyonnaisavg 3.5¢	$4.9	$5.6	+$0.7	51% 21492-20930 (42422)

0F62

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$32,076.81

Value

$31.9K

PnL

-$178.84

Record

52%

2025-1848 (3873)

NooseracCTR

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$900

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$100

Record

52%

5559-5099 (10658)

CannaeCTR

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$130.23

Value

$147.93

PnL

+$17.7

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$22.23

Value

$25.4

PnL

+$3.18

Record

50%

10665-10792 (21457)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Olympique Lyonnais

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0.7

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

Research grade

NeutralParis Saint-Germain FC at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Paris Saint-Germain FC

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Paris Saint-Germain FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.