Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$10.16

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 89.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,058

Combined PnL+$10.78

Yes3 traders

Total Value$273.9

Total Shares2,609

Combined PnL-$0.61

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 88¢	$900.7	$893.89	-$6.81	60% 39756-26331 (66087)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 88.6¢	$630.31	$636.9	+$6.6	50% 9386-9307 (18693)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 87.1¢	$858.56	$447.47	+$10.98	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$193.72	$203.34	+$9.62	51% 21726-21125 (42851)
0010001000001100CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$80.04	$70.03	-$10	65% 1295-693 (1988)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.75	$0.53	-$0.22	53% 15086-13191 (28277)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$900.7

Value

$893.89

PnL

-$6.81

Record

60%

39756-26331 (66087)

SnakeBall

Invested

$630.31

Value

$636.9

PnL

+$6.6

Record

50%

9386-9307 (18693)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$858.56

Value

$447.47

PnL

+$10.98

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$193.72

Value

$203.34

PnL

+$9.62

Record

51%

21726-21125 (42851)

0010001000001100CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.04

Value

$70.03

PnL

-$10

Record

65%

1295-693 (1988)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

15086-13191 (28277)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.