Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Draw at halftime?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$119.96

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 99.9¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,497

Combined PnL+$119.96

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Yesavg 99¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$9.59	95% 22084-1133 (23217)
ZX zxc368	Yesavg 99.9¢	$828.18	$828.6	+$0.41	99% 12306-175 (12481)
RN1	Yesavg 80¢	$414.4	$517.48	+$103.08	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 95¢	$133.38	$140.26	+$6.88	49% 11291-11571 (22862)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Yes

Invested

$1,009.16

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.59

Record

95%

22084-1133 (23217)

zxc368

Yes

Invested

$828.18

Value

$828.6

PnL

+$0.41

Record

99%

12306-175 (12481)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$414.4

Value

$517.48

PnL

+$103.08

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$133.38

Value

$140.26

PnL

+$6.88

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.