Olympique Lyonnais leading at halftime?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
2 arb excluded
$2.1K
$18.24
87.2¢ → 95¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $649.28 | $611.91 | -$37.37 | 54% 52380-44285 (96665) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 90.6¢ | $460.18 | $470.09 | +$9.9 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 10¢ | $189.09 | $141.82 | -$47.27 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 89.1¢ | $527.11 | $541.49 | +$14.39 | 51% 22118-21518 (43636) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 86¢ | $504.33 | $504.33 | +$0 | 50% 11018-11200 (22218) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 86¢ | $340.31 | $340.31 | +$5.94 | 58% 37843-27569 (65412) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $84.41 | $85.07 | +$0.66 | 60% 40192-26830 (67022) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 86¢ | $58.05 | $62.44 | +$4.39 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 8.7¢ | $26.36 | $22.63 | -$3.73 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $10.35 | $8.27 | -$2.08 | 50% 9398-9322 (18720) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$649.28
Value
$611.91
PnL
-$37.37
Record
54%
52380-44285 (96665)
Both legs:
Invested
$527.11
Value
$541.49
PnL
+$14.39
Record
51%
22118-21518 (43636)
Invested
$504.33
Value
$504.33
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
11018-11200 (22218)
VeryLucky888Invested
$340.31
Value
$340.31
PnL
+$5.94
Record
58%
37843-27569 (65412)
Invested
$84.41
Value
$85.07
PnL
+$0.66
Record
60%
40192-26830 (67022)
Both legs:
Invested
$10.35
Value
$8.27
PnL
-$2.08
Record
50%
9398-9322 (18720)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.