Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: 1st Half O/U 1.5
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $27K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 13%
$27.4K
$-5.3K
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 47.5¢ | $7.9K | $16.2K | +$8.4K | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Underavg 48¢ | $2.0K | $4.2K | +$2.2K | 50% 2364-2344 (4708) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 48.4¢ | $1.8K | $3.7K | +$1.9K | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
 poshposh | Underavg 46¢ | $690 | $1.5K | +$255 | 61% 8719-5662 (14381) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 48¢ | $432 | $899.1 | +$112.5 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 47¢ | $612.8 | $612.49 | +$324.5 | 63% 1003-581 (1584) |
ZX zxc368 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $241.19 | $241.07 | +$0.12 | 99% 12306-175 (12481) |
LU LuzzzerCTR | Overavg 52.3¢ | $18.4K | $17.61 | $-18.4K | 45% 99-120 (219) |
RN1Invested
$7,853.64
Value
$16.2K
PnL
+$8.4K
Record
54%
54083-45963 (100046)
Invested
$2,031.56
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
50%
2364-2344 (4708)
Invested
$1,790.24
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
49%
11291-11571 (22862)
poshposhInvested
$690
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$255
Record
61%
8719-5662 (14381)
VeryLucky888Invested
$432
Value
$899.1
PnL
+$112.5
Record
58%
39436-28511 (67947)
Invested
$612.8
Value
$612.49
PnL
+$324.5
Record
63%
1003-581 (1584)
Invested
$241.19
Value
$241.07
PnL
+$0.12
Record
99%
12306-175 (12481)
Invested
$18,423.75
Value
$17.61
PnL
$-18.4K
Record
45%
99-120 (219)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.