Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: 1st Half O/U 0.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 96¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 26

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$23.6K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 96¢

+18% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares20,852

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,034

Combined PnL-$497

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 80.8¢	$20.4K	$20.4K	+$3.9K	72% 2158-825 (2983)
RN1CTR	Overavg 36.8¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$477.02	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.9¢	$416.56	$416.35	+$0.21	99% 12306-175 (12481)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 16.8¢	$38.62	$18.64	-$19.98	49% 11291-11571 (22862)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$20,435.16

Value

$20.4K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

72%

2158-825 (2983)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$3,241.65

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$477.02

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

zxc368

Under

Invested

$416.56

Value

$416.35

PnL

+$0.21

Record

99%

12306-175 (12481)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.62

Value

$18.64

PnL

-$19.98

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.