Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Olympique Lyonnais?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$3.9K
$6.67
98.5¢ → 99¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 98.5¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$5.39 | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $279.84 | $281.83 | +$1.28 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $16.38 | $16.38 | -$0 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.