Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Olympique Lyonnais?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$4.5K
$13.55
91.8¢ → 89.8¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 92.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$36.32 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.5K | +$435.13 | 50% 31550-31196 (62746) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 89.9¢ | $892.39 | $902.94 | +$10.55 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $187.39 | $611.98 | +$424.58 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $879.32 | $891.62 | +$2.5 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $138.81 | $183.53 | +$44.72 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $39.9 | $43.88 | +$3.99 | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $15.69 | $14.2 | -$1.49 | 49% 18089-18501 (36590) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $8.9 | $9.1 | +$0.15 | 57% 26839-19987 (46826) |
Invested
$1,839.5
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$36.32
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Invested
$1,079.79
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$435.13
Record
50%
31550-31196 (62746)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$879.32
Value
$891.62
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
39436-28511 (67947)
RN1CTRInvested
$138.81
Value
$183.53
PnL
+$44.72
Record
54%
54083-45963 (100046)
Invested
$39.9
Value
$43.88
PnL
+$3.99
Record
49%
11291-11571 (22862)
Invested
$15.69
Value
$14.2
PnL
-$1.49
Record
49%
18089-18501 (36590)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$9.1
PnL
+$0.15
Record
57%
26839-19987 (46826)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.