Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Olympique Lyonnais?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$5.7K
$94.19
87.8¢ → 99.5¢
+13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $4.5K | $4.7K | +$128.8 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 75.5¢ | $452.77 | $551.71 | +$98.94 | 50% 31550-31196 (62746) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $546.89 | $412.26 | -$134.63 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 89.4¢ | $34.62 | $35.62 | +$1 | 73% 1392-517 (1909) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $28.39 | $26.94 | -$1.45 | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $3.05 | $5.89 | +$2.84 | 61% 8719-5662 (14381) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $2.48 | $1.17 | -$1.31 | 49% 18089-18501 (36590) |
RN1Invested
$4,542.73
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$128.8
Record
54%
54083-45963 (100046)
Invested
$452.77
Value
$551.71
PnL
+$98.94
Record
50%
31550-31196 (62746)
Invested
$546.89
Value
$412.26
PnL
-$134.63
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Invested
$34.62
Value
$35.62
PnL
+$1
Record
73%
1392-517 (1909)
Invested
$28.39
Value
$26.94
PnL
-$1.45
Record
49%
11291-11571 (22862)
poshposh<$100Invested
$3.05
Value
$5.89
PnL
+$2.84
Record
61%
8719-5662 (14381)
Invested
$2.48
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$1.31
Record
49%
18089-18501 (36590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.