Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 84¢ · $32K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$32.0K
$189.76
83¢ → 84¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 83¢ | $24.9K | $25.2K | +$150 | 47% 2220-2471 (4691) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 83¢ | $6.7K | $6.8K | +$40.25 | 50% 10665-10792 (21457) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $41.16 | $40.67 | -$0.49 | 57% 23971-18438 (42409) |
KY Kyn008CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $36.02 | $36.02 | -$0 | 50% 209-206 (415) |
Invested
$24,900
Value
$25.2K
PnL
+$150
Record
47%
2220-2471 (4691)
Invested
$6,681.5
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$40.25
Record
50%
10665-10792 (21457)
Invested
$41.16
Value
$40.67
PnL
-$0.49
Record
57%
23971-18438 (42409)
Invested
$36.02
Value
$36.02
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
209-206 (415)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.