Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 40¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$3.5K
$9.64
39.9¢ → 39.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 40¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$0 | 50% 17407-17735 (35142) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 39.2¢ | $584.52 | $236.01 | +$11.92 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | 56% 6695-5367 (12062) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60¢ | $120 | $120 | -$0 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40¢ | $80 | $80 | +$0 | |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 39.6¢ | $153.26 | $152.91 | -$0.36 | 53% 15234-13442 (28676) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 39.5¢ | $125.03 | $125.12 | +$1.44 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 39.5¢ | $71.65 | $72.63 | +$1.88 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60¢ | $53.38 | $52.49 | -$0.44 | |
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $79.18 | $77.24 | -$1.93 | 59% 2426-1678 (4104) |
Invested
$2,703.65
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
17407-17735 (35142)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$584.52
Value
$236.01
PnL
+$11.92
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
6695-5367 (12062)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.26
Value
$152.91
PnL
-$0.36
Record
53%
15234-13442 (28676)
Invested
$125.03
Value
$125.12
PnL
+$1.44
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.18
Value
$77.24
PnL
-$1.93
Record
59%
2426-1678 (4104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.