Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Olympique de Marseille vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 4.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

35.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,008

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over3 traders

Total Value$134.86

Total Shares482

Combined PnL-$33.43

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 33.8¢	$490.3	$1.0K	+$553.35	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
RN1CTR	Underavg 36.7¢	$490.76	$963.44	+$472.68	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 50¢	$74.5	$107.28	+$32.78	63% 22715-13447 (36162)
FO foooool	Overavg 44¢	$123.79	$78.86	-$44.93	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 22¢	$41.8	$53.2	+$11.4	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$13.95	$47.81	+$33.87	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
JI jiafan<$100	Overavg 22¢	$2.2	$2.8	+$0.1	61% 1318-837 (2155)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$0.45	$0.3	-$0.15	47% 3605-4050 (7655)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$490.3

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$553.35

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$490.76

Value

$963.44

PnL

+$472.68

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$74.5

Value

$107.28

PnL

+$32.78

Record

63%

22715-13447 (36162)

foooool

Over

Invested

$123.79

Value

$78.86

PnL

-$44.93

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$41.8

Value

$53.2

PnL

+$11.4

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.95

Value

$47.81

PnL

+$33.87

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

jiafan<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

61%

1318-837 (2155)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

3605-4050 (7655)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.