Olympique de Marseille vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 57¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
1 arb excluded
$11.1K
$2.8K
43.2¢ → 57¢
+32% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 57%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leungchihang | Overavg 43.2¢ | $7.3K | $10.1K | +$2.8K | 52% 35-32 (67) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $345.79 | $348.38 | +$2.59 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 57¢ | $231.61 | $231.42 | -$0.19 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 42¢ | $114.18 | $116.96 | +$2.78 | |
 HRTradingCTR | Underavg 56.8¢ | $185.97 | $186.73 | +$0.76 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Underavg 57¢ | $158.47 | $158.47 | +$1.39 | 59% 2269-1578 (3847) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $84.36 | $84.36 | +$0 | 61% 4553-2878 (7431) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $59.07 | $83.24 | +$24.16 | 66% 2855-1500 (4355) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 51.5¢ | $49.95 | $41.71 | -$8.24 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 37.9¢ | $17.97 | $27.05 | +$9.08 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
Invested
$7,340.74
Value
$10.1K
PnL
+$2.8K
Record
52%
35-32 (67)
Invested
$345.79
Value
$348.38
PnL
+$2.59
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTRInvested
$185.97
Value
$186.73
PnL
+$0.76
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
Invested
$158.47
Value
$158.47
PnL
+$1.39
Record
59%
2269-1578 (3847)
Invested
$84.36
Value
$84.36
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
4553-2878 (7431)
Invested
$59.07
Value
$83.24
PnL
+$24.16
Record
66%
2855-1500 (4355)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$41.71
PnL
-$8.24
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$17.97
Value
$27.05
PnL
+$9.08
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.