Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (87%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Olympique de Marseille vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 14¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 67%
$1.9K
-$301.76
34¢ → 13.5¢
-60% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 87%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 34.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$190.92 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Underavg 33¢ | $204.22 | $185.66 | -$74.26 | 48% 930-991 (1921) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 33.6¢ | $87.4 | $78.11 | -$9.29 | 52% 16312-14865 (31177) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $85 | $75 | -$32.5 | 56% 2033-1584 (3617) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 65¢ | $89.17 | $64.51 | +$5.49 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $49.5 | $52.5 | +$3 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $24.89 | $22.93 | -$1.96 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $11.05 | $9.75 | -$1.3 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $0.94 | $0.92 | -$0.02 | 53% 13585-12026 (25611) |
Invested
$1,586.91
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$190.92
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Invested
$204.22
Value
$185.66
PnL
-$74.26
Record
48%
930-991 (1921)
Invested
$87.4
Value
$78.11
PnL
-$9.29
Record
52%
16312-14865 (31177)
Invested
$85
Value
$75
PnL
-$32.5
Record
56%
2033-1584 (3617)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$89.17
Value
$64.51
PnL
+$5.49
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$49.5
Value
$52.5
PnL
+$3
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
Invested
$24.89
Value
$22.93
PnL
-$1.96
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$11.05
Value
$9.75
PnL
-$1.3
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
Invested
$0.94
Value
$0.92
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
13585-12026 (25611)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.