Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-3.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Le Havre AC (40%) · Le Havre AC at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25

Olympique de Marseille11¢Le Havre AC89¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Le Havre AC

Consensus Traders

Le Havre AC 40%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$16.21

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 89.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLe Havre AC at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Le Havre AC

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Olympique de Marseille11%

Le Havre AC90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Le Havre AC2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,392

Combined PnL-$97.47

Olympique de Marseille3 traders

Total Value$197.34

Total Shares1,161

Combined PnL+$81.26

Le Havre AC — 40%Olympique de Marseille — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Le Havre ACavg 90¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$92.01	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Olympique de Marseilleavg 10¢	$113.52	$192.98	+$79.46	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Le Havre ACavg 90¢	$70.2	$64.74	-$5.46	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Olympique de Marseilleavg 10¢	$2.06	$3.5	+$1.44	58% 1363-997 (2360)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Olympique de Marseilleavg 10¢	$0.5	$0.85	+$0.35	50% 8728-8659 (17387)

GoalLineGhost

Le Havre AC

Invested

$1,183

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$92.01

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

UpTheBluesCTR

Olympique de Marseille

Invested

$113.52

Value

$192.98

PnL

+$79.46

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Le Havre AC

Invested

$70.2

Value

$64.74

PnL

-$5.46

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Olympique de Marseille

Invested

$2.06

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$1.44

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Olympique de Marseille

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

8728-8659 (17387)

Research grade

NeutralLe Havre AC at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Le Havre AC

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Le Havre AC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.