Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Le Havre AC, while the market favors Olympique de Marseille (78%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Le Havre AC (73%) · Le Havre AC at 23¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 25

Olympique de Marseille78¢Le Havre AC22¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Le Havre AC

Consensus Traders

Le Havre AC 73%

Total Value

$17.8K

Combined PnL

-$294.02

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 22.5¢

-61% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidLe Havre AC at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Le Havre AC

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Olympique de Marseille 78%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Olympique de Marseille78%

Le Havre AC23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Le Havre AC8 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares29,906

Combined PnL-$311.97

Olympique de Marseille3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,521

Combined PnL+$17.95

Le Havre AC — 73%Olympique de Marseille — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Le Havre AC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLe Havre AC 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpLe Havre AC 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLe Havre AC 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLe Havre AC 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Le Havre AC 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TI timezonewarriorCTR	Le Havre ACavg 57¢	$15.0K	$14.7K	-$263.2	44% 94-120 (214)
StudyPredictionCTR	Le Havre ACavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$20	51% 3605-3468 (7073)
GO GoalLineGhost	Olympique de Marseilleavg 43.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$19.69	52% 16312-14865 (31177)
VeryLucky888CTR	Le Havre ACavg 58.3¢	$333.85	$329.7	-$4.16	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Le Havre ACavg 58¢	$268.89	$250.35	-$2.32	69% 4286-1924 (6210)
AN Anon455CTR	Le Havre ACavg 54¢	$135	$140	-$32.5	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Le Havre ACavg 50.3¢	$93.3	$103.88	+$10.58	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Le Havre ACavg 56¢	$28.56	$28.56	+$0	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Le Havre ACavg 57¢	$14.18	$13.44	-$0.37	56% 6365-5100 (11465)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Olympique de Marseilleavg 56¢	$6.87	$5.4	-$1.47	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
HRTrading<$100	Olympique de Marseilleavg 54¢	$1.43	$1.17	-$0.26	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

timezonewarriorCTR

Le Havre AC

Invested

$15,002.38

Value

$14.7K

PnL

-$263.2

Record

44%

94-120 (214)

StudyPredictionCTR

Le Havre AC

Invested

$1,140

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$20

Record

51%

3605-3468 (7073)

GoalLineGhost

Olympique de Marseille

Invested

$1,083.18

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$19.69

Record

52%

16312-14865 (31177)

VeryLucky888CTR

Le Havre AC

Invested

$333.85

Value

$329.7

PnL

-$4.16

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Le Havre AC

Invested

$268.89

Value

$250.35

PnL

-$2.32

Record

69%

4286-1924 (6210)

Anon455CTR

Le Havre AC

Invested

$135

Value

$140

PnL

-$32.5

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

UpTheBluesCTR

Le Havre AC

Invested

$93.3

Value

$103.88

PnL

+$10.58

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Le Havre AC

Invested

$28.56

Value

$28.56

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Le Havre AC

Invested

$14.18

Value

$13.44

PnL

-$0.37

Record

56%

6365-5100 (11465)

SnakeBall<$100

Olympique de Marseille

Invested

$6.87

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$1.47

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

HRTrading<$100

Olympique de Marseille

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.26

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

AvoidLe Havre AC at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Le Havre AC

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Olympique de Marseille 78%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Le Havre AC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLe Havre AC 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpLe Havre AC 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLe Havre AC 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLe Havre AC 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Le Havre AC 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Le Havre AC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.