Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-10-25?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 94¢ · $42K held · ended Oct 25

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 93.5¢

+29% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$34.1K

Total Shares39,194

Combined PnL+$2.8K

No5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares27,857

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP SparYel	Yesavg 67¢	$8.0K	$10.1K	+$1.6K	49% 18-19 (37)
KW kwzo	Yesavg 82.2¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$169.4	45% 58-71 (129)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yesavg 67¢	$3.7K	$4.7K	+$742.5	51% 985-937 (1922)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 66¢	$3.8K	$4.2K	-$390.2	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 71.5¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$454.85	52% 16312-14865 (31177)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 79.9¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$119.2	57% 1460-1082 (2542)
XW xwingboyCTR	Noavg 34¢	$5.0K	$2.2K	$-2.8K	67% 279-138 (417)
0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816	Yesavg 82.8¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$52.7	69% 300-136 (436)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 33¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$504.9	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67.8¢	$905.38	$1.1K	+$170.1
└ No leg	Noavg 33¢	$1.6K	$750	-$675
noosh3	Yesavg 82.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$46.01	52% 191-178 (369)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 81.1¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$241.12	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 81.1¢	$971.74	$1.0K	+$46.94
└ No leg	Noavg 27.5¢	$633.02	$344.96	-$288.06
RN1CTR	Noavg 23.4¢	$1.4K	$913.4	-$512.35	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 33.5¢	$1.5K	$553.14	-$656.75	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 88.3¢	$509.7	$496.24	-$13.46	53% 12247-10971 (23218)
StudyPredictionCTR	Noavg 32¢	$640	$300	-$340	51% 3605-3468 (7073)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Noavg 37¢	$508.02	$254.19	-$253.83	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 33.8¢	$273.48	$218.4	-$55.08	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66¢	$114.84	$147.9	+$33.06
└ No leg	Noavg 33.8¢	$158.64	$70.5	-$88.14
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 81.7¢	$198.44	$196.2	-$2.24	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 81.7¢	$148.58	$154.65	+$6.07
└ No leg	Noavg 18¢	$49.86	$41.55	-$8.31
GH ghostorder	Yesavg 82¢	$164	$170	+$6	68% 3934-1881 (5815)
HRTradingARB<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$34.44	$84.55	+$4.85	57% 1506-1114 (2620)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66¢	$46.86	$60.35	+$1.89
└ No leg	Noavg 13.2¢	$21.24	$24.2	+$2.96
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$12.93	$11.94	-$0.98	58% 16155-11793 (27948)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.25	+$0.15	55% 4855-4037 (8892)

SparYel

Yes

Invested

$8,000

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

49%

18-19 (37)

kwzo

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$169.4

Record

45%

58-71 (129)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yes

Invested

$3,685

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$742.5

Record

51%

985-937 (1922)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$3,823.62

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$390.2

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,418.91

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$454.85

Record

52%

16312-14865 (31177)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$2,665.35

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$119.2

Record

57%

1460-1082 (2542)

xwingboyCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

67%

279-138 (417)

0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816

Yes

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$52.7

Record

69%

300-136 (436)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$2,330.38

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$504.9

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

Both legs:

Yes$905.3867.8¢+$170.1

No$1,65033¢-$675

noosh3

Yes

Invested

$1,499.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$46.01

Record

52%

191-178 (369)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,604.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$241.12

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

Both legs:

Yes$971.7481.1¢+$46.94

No$633.0227.5¢-$288.06

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,425.75

Value

$913.4

PnL

-$512.35

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,518.01

Value

$553.14

PnL

-$656.75

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$509.7

Value

$496.24

PnL

-$13.46

Record

53%

12247-10971 (23218)

StudyPredictionCTR

Invested

$640

Value

$300

PnL

-$340

Record

51%

3605-3468 (7073)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Invested

$508.02

Value

$254.19

PnL

-$253.83

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$273.48

Value

$218.4

PnL

-$55.08

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

Both legs:

Yes$114.8466¢+$33.06

No$158.6433.8¢-$88.14

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$198.44

Value

$196.2

PnL

-$2.24

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

Both legs:

Yes$148.5881.7¢+$6.07

No$49.8618¢-$8.31

ghostorder

Yes

Invested

$164

Value

$170

PnL

+$6

Record

68%

3934-1881 (5815)

HRTradingARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.44

Value

$84.55

PnL

+$4.85

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Both legs:

Invested

$12.93

Value

$11.94

PnL

-$0.98

Record

58%

16155-11793 (27948)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

55%

4855-4037 (8892)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.