Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 86¢ · $299 held · ends Oct 25

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$299.31

Combined PnL

$11.28

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 85.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$237.3

Total Shares288

Combined PnL-$0.46

Yes2 traders

Total Value$62.01

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$11.74

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 84¢	$128.31	$126.02	-$2.29	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 81¢	$101.51	$103.39	+$1.88	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$43.55	$54.44	+$10.89	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 83¢	$7.94	$7.9	-$0.05	53% 13577-12018 (25595)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$6.72	$7.58	+$0.85	58% 31642-22900 (54542)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$128.31

Value

$126.02

PnL

-$2.29

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

SnakeBall

Invested

$101.51

Value

$103.39

PnL

+$1.88

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.55

Value

$54.44

PnL

+$10.89

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$7.94

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

13577-12018 (25595)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.72

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$0.85

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.