Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 30¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$142.99

Smart Money Entry

86.7¢ → 29.6¢

-66% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,217

Combined PnL+$211.15

Yes4 traders

Total Value$84.44

Total Shares1,368

Combined PnL-$68.16

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Noavg 86.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$130.26	53% 1882-1643 (3525)
AN Anon455CTR	Noavg 87¢	$810.52	$875.73	+$83.85	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$498.51	$531.6	+$33.08	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.7¢	$389.09	$402.11	+$13.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.1¢	$109.42	$129.48	+$20.06
oieshfn345CTR	Noavg 91.5¢	$295.3	$303.3	+$14.46	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Noavg 85.8¢	$244.58	$258.03	-$19.39	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 79¢	$195.62	$232.76	+$3.71	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
Fuentes31	Yesavg 12.9¢	$100	$46.37	-$57.5	54% 645-555 (1200)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$18.82	$22.58	+$3.76	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$18.8	$19.89	+$1.09	46% 1535-1785 (3320)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$10.09	$10.28	+$0.19	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Noavg 86¢	$8.6	$9.4	+$0.95	56% 471-363 (834)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 99¢	$14.37	$9.22	-$5.15	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 88¢	$8.6	$9.19	+$0.59	71% 17700-7191 (24891)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$19.83	$5.22	-$14.61	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
AD adururuCTR<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.7	+$0.4	54% 295-248 (543)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.7	+$0.38	52% 222-202 (424)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Invested

$1,220.45

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$130.26

Record

53%

1882-1643 (3525)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$810.52

Value

$875.73

PnL

+$83.85

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$498.51

Value

$531.6

PnL

+$33.08

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Both legs:

No$389.0988.7¢+$13.02

Yes$109.427.1¢+$20.06

oieshfn345CTR

Invested

$295.3

Value

$303.3

PnL

+$14.46

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Invested

$244.58

Value

$258.03

PnL

-$19.39

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$195.62

Value

$232.76

PnL

+$3.71

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

Fuentes31

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$46.37

PnL

-$57.5

Record

54%

645-555 (1200)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.82

Value

$22.58

PnL

+$3.76

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$18.8

Value

$19.89

PnL

+$1.09

Record

46%

1535-1785 (3320)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.09

Value

$10.28

PnL

+$0.19

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.95

Record

56%

471-363 (834)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$14.37

Value

$9.22

PnL

-$5.15

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

$9.19

PnL

+$0.59

Record

71%

17700-7191 (24891)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.83

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$14.61

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

adururuCTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

295-248 (543)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.38

Record

52%

222-202 (424)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.7%

29.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$215.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

315.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.