Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 48¢ · $745 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 33%
$744.55
$0.28
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $602.07 | $602.07 | -$0 | 52% 1352-1269 (2621) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $88.63 | $88.91 | +$0.28 | 53% 13575-12013 (25588) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $53.56 | $53.56 | +$0 | 54% 13750-11556 (25306) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.