Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 49¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25

Yes52¢No48¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$96.9

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 48.5¢

-31% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,150

Combined PnL+$74.82

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,246

Combined PnL+$22.08

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$27.44	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
└ No leg	Noavg 48¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.9¢	$944.42	$956.12	+$11.7
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Noavg 76¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$9.08	69% 4268-1921 (6189)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 40.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$163.71	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 49.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$31.11	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.1¢	$558.94	$574.4	+$15.45
└ No leg	Noavg 48.1¢	$541.28	$556.94	+$15.66
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 74.8¢	$723.26	$761.51	+$25.65	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
YO yohan75CTR	Noavg 50¢	$450	$477	+$27	51% 234-221 (455)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 76¢	$324.75	$337.57	+$12.82	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 76.8¢	$394.72	$287.25	-$107.47	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.8¢	$319.72	$214.5	-$105.22
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$75	$72.75	-$2.25
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yesavg 35.5¢	$355	$210	-$145	51% 980-932 (1912)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 52.8¢	$107.45	$100.57	-$6.89	53% 12226-10956 (23182)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.8¢	$81.45	$74.82	-$6.64
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$26	$25.75	-$0.25
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$20.26	$28.18	+$17	53% 1871-1637 (3508)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 48.8¢	$24.1	$23.81	-$0.29	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$18.08	$18.62	+$0.54	65% 12547-6672 (19219)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$25.52	$12.18	-$13.34	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 78¢	$8.67	$8.4	-$0.27	71% 17634-7151 (24785)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$2,454.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$27.44

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Both legs:

No$1,510.5648¢+$15.73

Yes$944.4250.9¢+$11.7

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Invested

$1,380.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$9.08

Record

69%

4268-1921 (6189)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$1,077.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$163.71

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,100.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$31.11

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

Both legs:

Yes$558.9449.1¢+$15.45

No$541.2848.1¢+$15.66

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$723.26

Value

$761.51

PnL

+$25.65

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

yohan75CTR

Invested

$450

Value

$477

PnL

+$27

Record

51%

234-221 (455)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$324.75

Value

$337.57

PnL

+$12.82

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$394.72

Value

$287.25

PnL

-$107.47

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

Both legs:

No$319.7276.8¢-$105.22

Yes$7550¢-$2.25

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yes

Invested

$355

Value

$210

PnL

-$145

Record

51%

980-932 (1912)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$107.45

Value

$100.57

PnL

-$6.89

Record

53%

12226-10956 (23182)

Both legs:

No$81.4552.8¢-$6.64

Yes$2652¢-$0.25

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.26

Value

$28.18

PnL

+$17

Record

53%

1871-1637 (3508)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.1

Value

$23.81

PnL

-$0.29

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Invested

$18.08

Value

$18.62

PnL

+$0.54

Record

65%

12547-6672 (19219)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.52

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$13.34

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$8.67

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$0.27

Record

71%

17634-7151 (24785)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.