Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 32¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$21.19

Smart Money Entry

27.2¢ → 32¢

+18% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,768

Combined PnL+$18.44

No3 traders

Total Value$105.86

Total Shares145

Combined PnL+$2.75

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$19.17	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$74.9	$78.79	+$3.89	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
AN Anon455<$100	Noavg 70¢	$63.01	$65.71	+$2.7	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$49.98	$48.2	-$1.78	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$40.77	$40.77	+$0	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 73¢	$36.5	$36.5	+$0	53% 12226-10956 (23182)
JI jiafanCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$36	$34.71	-$0.64	61% 1309-832 (2141)
0X 0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$35	$31.5	-$3.5	22% 47-166 (213)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$23.63	$18.88	+$1.21	53% 1871-1637 (3508)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$4.97	$4.97	+$0.09	55% 3864-3162 (7026)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.65	+$0.05	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$2.9	$2.9	+$0	46% 1531-1778 (3309)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,035

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$19.17

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.9

Value

$78.79

PnL

+$3.89

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$63.01

Value

$65.71

PnL

+$2.7

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.98

Value

$48.2

PnL

-$1.78

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.77

Value

$40.77

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$36.5

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

12226-10956 (23182)

jiafanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36

Value

$34.71

PnL

-$0.64

Record

61%

1309-832 (2141)

0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

22%

47-166 (213)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.63

Value

$18.88

PnL

+$1.21

Record

53%

1871-1637 (3508)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.09

Record

55%

3864-3162 (7026)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1531-1778 (3309)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.