Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 48¢ · $530 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$530.18
-$7.2
47.7¢ → 47.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47.9¢ | $257.74 | $252.74 | -$5 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 53¢ | $126.68 | $125.48 | -$1.2 | 59% 13892-9640 (23532) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $100.26 | $100.26 | +$0 | 50% 8802-8735 (17537) |
JI jiafanCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $48 | $47 | -$1 | 61% 1307-831 (2138) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $4.7 | +$0 | 50% 7758-7812 (15570) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$257.74
Value
$252.74
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$126.68
Value
$125.48
PnL
-$1.2
Record
59%
13892-9640 (23532)
Invested
$100.26
Value
$100.26
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
8802-8735 (17537)
Invested
$48
Value
$47
PnL
-$1
Record
61%
1307-831 (2138)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7758-7812 (15570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.