Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 33¢ · $660 held · ended Oct 25

Yes68¢No32¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$660.46

Combined PnL

-$7.1

Smart Money Entry

39.9¢ → 32.5¢

-19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$320.51

Total Shares524

Combined PnL-$0.69

No3 traders

Total Value$339.95

Total Shares868

Combined PnL-$6.4

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Yesavg 54.8¢	$278.16	$282.71	+$4.54	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 45.2¢	$279.08	$243.91	-$35.17	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 25.7¢	$60.16	$87.77	+$27.61	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$27.26	$24.44	-$2.82	61% 4538-2871 (7409)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 61.4¢	$15.78	$13.36	-$2.42	53% 1871-1637 (3508)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$7.11	$8.27	+$1.16	53% 13578-12019 (25597)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$278.16

Value

$282.71

PnL

+$4.54

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$279.08

Value

$243.91

PnL

-$35.17

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$60.16

Value

$87.77

PnL

+$27.61

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Forecastication2<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.26

Value

$24.44

PnL

-$2.82

Record

61%

4538-2871 (7409)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.78

Value

$13.36

PnL

-$2.42

Record

53%

1871-1637 (3508)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$7.11

Value

$8.27

PnL

+$1.16

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.