Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Angers SCO (75%) · Angers SCO at 82¢ · $873 held · ends Oct 25

FC Lorient18¢Angers SCO82¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Angers SCO

Consensus Traders

Angers SCO 75%

Total Value

$873.32

Combined PnL

$2.75

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 82¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAngers SCO at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Angers SCO

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Lorient18%

Angers SCO82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Angers SCO3 traders

Total Value$604.4

Total Shares737

Combined PnL+$2.75

FC Lorient1 trader

Total Value$268.92

Total Shares1,494

Combined PnL-$0

Angers SCO — 75%FC Lorient — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA Cannae	Angers SCOavg 81.6¢	$532.36	$535.11	+$2.75	53% 13553-11995 (25548)
FO Forecastication2CTR	FC Lorientavg 18¢	$268.92	$268.92	-$0	61% 4366-2803 (7169)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Angers SCOavg 82¢	$40.59	$40.59	-$0	50% 7629-7782 (15411)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Angers SCOavg 82¢	$28.7	$28.7	+$0	54% 13697-11517 (25214)

Cannae

Angers SCO

Invested

$532.36

Value

$535.11

PnL

+$2.75

Record

53%

13553-11995 (25548)

Forecastication2CTR

FC Lorient

Invested

$268.92

Value

$268.92

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

4366-2803 (7169)

LuckyLoo<$100

Angers SCO

Invested

$40.59

Value

$40.59

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

7629-7782 (15411)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Angers SCO

Invested

$28.7

Value

$28.7

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

Research grade

NeutralAngers SCO at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Angers SCO

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Angers SCO wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.