Will FC Lorient win on 2026-10-25?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$20.33
59.3¢ → 67.5¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 60.4¢ | $732.52 | $719.98 | -$12.54 | 57% 1460-1082 (2542) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 40.4¢ | $538.33 | $538.32 | -$0.01 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.4¢ | $357.2 | $371.28 | +$14.08 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.9¢ | $181.13 | $167.04 | -$14.09 | |
AN Anon455 | Noavg 58¢ | $446.55 | $452.5 | +$39.1 | 56% 2033-1584 (3617) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 59.7¢ | $170.85 | $165.94 | -$3.48 | 53% 13585-12026 (25611) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 59¢ | $162.83 | $160.07 | -$2.76 | 69% 4286-1924 (6210) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $72.26 | $72.26 | -$0 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $18.61 | $18.61 | -$0 | 53% 12247-10971 (23218) |
oieshfn345Invested
$732.52
Value
$719.98
PnL
-$12.54
Record
57%
1460-1082 (2542)
Invested
$538.33
Value
$538.32
PnL
-$0.01
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Both legs:
Invested
$446.55
Value
$452.5
PnL
+$39.1
Record
56%
2033-1584 (3617)
Invested
$170.85
Value
$165.94
PnL
-$3.48
Record
53%
13585-12026 (25611)
Invested
$162.83
Value
$160.07
PnL
-$2.76
Record
69%
4286-1924 (6210)
RN1<$100Invested
$72.26
Value
$72.26
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
Invested
$18.61
Value
$18.61
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
12247-10971 (23218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.