Angers SCO vs. FC Lorient: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 53¢ · $24K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$23.7K
$193.31
52.7¢ → 53¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 52¢ | $14.3K | $14.7K | +$412.44 | 59% 13895-9640 (23535) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Underavg 54¢ | $7.9K | $7.8K | -$217.3 | 55% 1299-1044 (2343) |
SA Saber-greed | Underavg 52.6¢ | $696.8 | $701.6 | -$1.82 | 59% 2263-1576 (3839) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $470 | $470 | +$0 | 50% 7759-7812 (15571) |
Invested
$14,296.82
Value
$14.7K
PnL
+$412.44
Record
59%
13895-9640 (23535)
Invested
$7,919.74
Value
$7.8K
PnL
-$217.3
Record
55%
1299-1044 (2343)
Invested
$696.8
Value
$701.6
PnL
-$1.82
Record
59%
2263-1576 (3839)
Invested
$470
Value
$470
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7759-7812 (15571)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.