Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
AJ Auxerre vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 2.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 45¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$8.5K
$56.29
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SB sbimbgCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $5.4K | $5.5K | +$61.29 | 64% 2180-1208 (3388) |
CA Cannae | Overavg 56¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$0 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Overavg 56¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0 | 69% 4268-1921 (6189) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 56¢ | $560 | $560 | -$5 | 58% 31667-22925 (54592) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 56¢ | $112 | $112 | -$0 | 56% 6357-5092 (11449) |
Invested
$5,393.7
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$61.29
Record
64%
2180-1208 (3388)
Invested
$1,216.3
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
Invested
$1,120
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
69%
4268-1921 (6189)
VeryLucky888Invested
$560
Value
$560
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
31667-22925 (54592)
0xheavy888Invested
$112
Value
$112
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
6357-5092 (11449)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.