Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AJ Auxerre vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 50%
$1.0K
$40.08
36.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 37.1¢ | $673.26 | $708.62 | +$35.36 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
AN Anon455 | Overavg 61¢ | $250 | $166.25 | +$13.75 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 71.6¢ | $74.65 | $63.56 | -$11.09 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Overavg 70¢ | $71 | $55.74 | +$6.04 | 73% 1267-480 (1747) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Overavg 99¢ | $30 | $18.48 | -$11.52 | 71% 17700-7191 (24891) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $6.97 | $10.87 | +$3.9 | 50% 7794-7854 (15648) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $7.03 | $10.54 | +$3.51 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $2.4 | $4.68 | +$0.12 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
Invested
$673.26
Value
$708.62
PnL
+$35.36
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$250
Value
$166.25
PnL
+$13.75
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
Invested
$74.65
Value
$63.56
PnL
-$11.09
Record
51%
6631-6378 (13009)
Invested
$71
Value
$55.74
PnL
+$6.04
Record
73%
1267-480 (1747)
Invested
$30
Value
$18.48
PnL
-$11.52
Record
71%
17700-7191 (24891)
Invested
$6.97
Value
$10.87
PnL
+$3.9
Record
50%
7794-7854 (15648)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$7.03
Value
$10.54
PnL
+$3.51
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$4.68
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.