Will Le Mans FC win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$806.06

Smart Money Entry

82.9¢ → 98.5¢

+19% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,883

Combined PnL-$599.53

Yes4 traders

Total Value$143.98

Total Shares762

Combined PnL-$206.53

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 83.8¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$73.62	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 92.6¢	$1.4K	$932.38	-$507.71	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
AN Anon455	Noavg 73.1¢	$849.25	$785.3	-$194.11	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 82.7¢	$216.35	$241.52	+$25.17	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$147.75	$141.95	-$5.8	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$74.79	$74.79	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 79.3¢	$72.96	$67.16	-$5.8
LI LilybaeumCTR	Yesavg 49.6¢	$322.08	$113.7	-$208.38	65% 12565-6695 (19260)
RN1<$100	Noavg 77¢	$66.44	$67.5	+$1.06	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 64.3¢	$53.97	$61.32	+$7.35	58% 16182-11818 (28000)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$29.53	$25	-$4.53	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
GH ghostorderCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$16.93	$22.86	+$5.93	68% 3945-1883 (5828)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$5	$4.05	-$0.95	55% 4880-4051 (8931)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4.32	$3.94	-$0.38	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$6.5	$3.38	-$3.13	46% 1535-1785 (3320)

oieshfn345

Invested

$3,389.47

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$73.62

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,440.09

Value

$932.38

PnL

-$507.71

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Anon455

Invested

$849.25

Value

$785.3

PnL

-$194.11

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$216.35

Value

$241.52

PnL

+$25.17

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$147.75

Value

$141.95

PnL

-$5.8

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

Both legs:

Invested

$322.08

Value

$113.7

PnL

-$208.38

Record

65%

12565-6695 (19260)

RN1<$100

Invested

$66.44

Value

$67.5

PnL

+$1.06

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$53.97

Value

$61.32

PnL

+$7.35

Record

58%

16182-11818 (28000)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$29.53

Value

$25

PnL

-$4.53

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

ghostorderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.93

Value

$22.86

PnL

+$5.93

Record

68%

3945-1883 (5828)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.95

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$4.32

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$0.38

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$3.13

Record

46%

1535-1785 (3320)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.