Will AJ Auxerre vs. Le Mans FC end in a draw?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 95¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Yes95¢No5¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$297.55

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 94.5¢

+31% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares7,034

Combined PnL+$461.27

No7 traders

Total Value$485.55

Total Shares1,331

Combined PnL-$163.72

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 80.6¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$442.23	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
KW kwzo	Yesavg 74¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$9.46	45% 59-71 (130)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$548.44	$639.44	+$91	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$319.92	$449.41	+$129.49
└ No leg	Noavg 13.8¢	$228.52	$190.03	-$38.49
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 27¢	$557.32	$536.82	-$20.49	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
└ No leg	Noavg 27¢	$305.58	$271.58	-$33.99
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72.1¢	$251.74	$265.24	+$13.5
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 26.7¢	$538.4	$532.42	-$5.98	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
└ No leg	Noavg 26.7¢	$401.9	$398.65	-$3.25
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75¢	$136.5	$133.77	-$2.73
noosh3	Yesavg 74¢	$420	$417.16	-$2.84	51% 192-181 (373)
GH ghostorder	Yesavg 36.4¢	$254.5	$273	+$18.5	68% 3945-1883 (5828)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 41¢	$162.6	$162.6	+$0	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Noavg 50¢	$225.96	$130.14	-$95.82	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 72.7¢	$110.69	$112.14	+$1.45	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 31.9¢	$72	$88.16	+$16.15	58% 16182-11818 (28000)
BE BetzikoCTR	Noavg 53.6¢	$113.74	$48	-$65.75	55% 4880-4051 (8931)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$30.93	$25.74	-$5.19	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$27.85	$24.63	-$3.21	65% 12565-6695 (19260)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$7.15	$6.88	-$0.28	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$5.2	$5.95	+$0.75	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$3.75	$4.87	+$1.12	46% 1535-1785 (3320)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$1.27	$1.16	-$0.11	63% 22715-13447 (36162)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$2,946.4

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$442.23

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

kwzo

Yes

Invested

$1,400

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$9.46

Record

45%

59-71 (130)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$548.44

Value

$639.44

PnL

+$91

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Both legs:

Yes$319.9263¢+$129.49

No$228.5213.8¢-$38.49

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$557.32

Value

$536.82

PnL

-$20.49

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

Both legs:

No$305.5827¢-$33.99

Yes$251.7472.1¢+$13.5

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$538.4

Value

$532.42

PnL

-$5.98

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

Both legs:

Invested

$420

Value

$417.16

PnL

-$2.84

Record

51%

192-181 (373)

ghostorder

Yes

Invested

$254.5

Value

$273

PnL

+$18.5

Record

68%

3945-1883 (5828)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$162.6

Value

$162.6

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Invested

$225.96

Value

$130.14

PnL

-$95.82

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$110.69

Value

$112.14

PnL

+$1.45

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$72

Value

$88.16

PnL

+$16.15

Record

58%

16182-11818 (28000)

BetzikoCTR

Invested

$113.74

Value

$48

PnL

-$65.75

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.93

Value

$25.74

PnL

-$5.19

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Invested

$27.85

Value

$24.63

PnL

-$3.21

Record

65%

12565-6695 (19260)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$7.15

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$0.75

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$1.12

Record

46%

1535-1785 (3320)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$0.11

Record

63%

22715-13447 (36162)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.