Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AJ Auxerre vs. Le Mans FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 40¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.3K
$4.55
39¢ → 39.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YO yohan75 | Yesavg 61¢ | $427 | $427 | -$3.5 | 51% 234-221 (455) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $403.67 | $403.67 | +$5.18 | 50% 7766-7815 (15581) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $234.57 | $234.57 | +$0 | 53% 13584-12026 (25610) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 39¢ | $117 | $117.24 | +$1.52 | 58% 31709-22957 (54666) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $106.08 | $106.08 | +$1.36 | 54% 13818-11600 (25418) |
Invested
$427
Value
$427
PnL
-$3.5
Record
51%
234-221 (455)
Invested
$403.67
Value
$403.67
PnL
+$5.18
Record
50%
7766-7815 (15581)
Invested
$234.57
Value
$234.57
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
13584-12026 (25610)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$117
Value
$117.24
PnL
+$1.52
Record
58%
31709-22957 (54666)
Invested
$106.08
Value
$106.08
PnL
+$1.36
Record
54%
13818-11600 (25418)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.