Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-10-25?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 63¢ · $37K held · ended Oct 25

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.8K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 62.5¢

+15% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$23.2K

Total Shares41,979

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares29,497

Combined PnL-$771.22

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Noavg 54¢	$17.3K	$17.6K	+$1.8K	51% 191-182 (373)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$50	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$477.15	50% 7770-7819 (15589)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$309.59	52% 5272-4847 (10119)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 55.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$7.01	59% 13959-9681 (23640)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$135	51% 985-937 (1922)
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 41.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$89.77	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 57.3¢	$869.22	$843.5	-$25.72	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$719.23	$704.02	-$22.89	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 53.9¢	$1.3K	$594.09	+$11.93	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
oieshfn345	Noavg 59.6¢	$598.28	$551.65	-$46.63	57% 1460-1082 (2542)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 45.6¢	$140.85	$139.75	-$1.1	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.6¢	$113.39	$111.78	-$1.61
└ No leg	Noavg 54¢	$27.46	$27.97	+$0.51
GH ghostorder<$100	Noavg 59¢	$88.5	$82.5	-$6	68% 3934-1881 (5815)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 59¢	$74.68	$73.71	-$0.97	53% 12247-10971 (23218)
└ No leg	Noavg 59¢	$45.27	$42.2	-$3.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42¢	$29.42	$31.52	+$2.1
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 59.3¢	$74.55	$69.11	-$5.44	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
JI jiafanCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$62.63	$61.27	-$1.36	61% 1314-835 (2149)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 55¢	$48.94	$48.94	-$0	69% 394-173 (567)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 59.5¢	$40.32	$37.29	-$3.03	57% 1506-1114 (2620)
GG GGLPL<$100	Noavg 55¢	$11.5	$11.49	-$0	50% 617-615 (1232)

Kch-Temp

Invested

$17,260.08

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

51%

191-182 (373)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,600

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$50

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,990.73

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$477.15

Record

50%

7770-7819 (15589)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,095.87

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$309.59

Record

52%

5272-4847 (10119)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$1,741.83

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$7.01

Record

59%

13959-9681 (23640)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$1,650

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$135

Record

51%

985-937 (1922)

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,084.61

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$89.77

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$869.22

Value

$843.5

PnL

-$25.72

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$719.23

Value

$704.02

PnL

-$22.89

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,333.05

Value

$594.09

PnL

+$11.93

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

oieshfn345

Invested

$598.28

Value

$551.65

PnL

-$46.63

Record

57%

1460-1082 (2542)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$140.85

Value

$139.75

PnL

-$1.1

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

Both legs:

Yes$113.3945.6¢-$1.61

No$27.4654¢+$0.51

ghostorder<$100

Invested

$88.5

Value

$82.5

PnL

-$6

Record

68%

3934-1881 (5815)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$74.68

Value

$73.71

PnL

-$0.97

Record

53%

12247-10971 (23218)

Both legs:

No$45.2759¢-$3.07

Yes$29.4242¢+$2.1

foooool<$100

Invested

$74.55

Value

$69.11

PnL

-$5.44

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

jiafanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.63

Value

$61.27

PnL

-$1.36

Record

61%

1314-835 (2149)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$48.94

Value

$48.94

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

394-173 (567)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$40.32

Value

$37.29

PnL

-$3.03

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

GGLPL<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.49

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

617-615 (1232)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.