Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
HJK Helsinki vs. Kuopion Palloseura: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 35¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$1.7K
$28.23
56.9¢ → 35¢
-38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 35%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA rabbitfoot1CTR | Overavg 56.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$37.43 | 53% 889-782 (1671) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 43¢ | $214.99 | $207.49 | -$7.5 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
SA Saber-greed<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $72.67 | $71.02 | -$1.65 | 59% 2262-1574 (3836) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $14.14 | $14.39 | -$0.13 | 50% 7758-7812 (15570) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $1.22 | $1.3 | +$0.08 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
Invested
$1,321.03
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$37.43
Record
53%
889-782 (1671)
VeryLucky888Invested
$214.99
Value
$207.49
PnL
-$7.5
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$72.67
Value
$71.02
PnL
-$1.65
Record
59%
2262-1574 (3836)
Invested
$14.14
Value
$14.39
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
7758-7812 (15570)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$0.08
Record
55%
43492-35800 (79292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.