Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Kuopion Palloseura win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 32¢ · $525 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$525.11
-$4.41
74.3¢ → 32¢
-57% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 32%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008CTR | Noavg 74¢ | $289.54 | $289.54 | +$0 | 50% 191-188 (379) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 75¢ | $164.82 | $162.62 | -$2.2 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 74.1¢ | $51.95 | $49.75 | -$2.2 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $12.24 | $12.33 | +$0.09 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $6 | $5.8 | -$0.2 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $4.87 | $5.07 | +$0.1 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
Invested
$289.54
Value
$289.54
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
191-188 (379)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$164.82
Value
$162.62
PnL
-$2.2
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$51.95
Value
$49.75
PnL
-$2.2
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
Invested
$12.24
Value
$12.33
PnL
+$0.09
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
RN1<$100Invested
$6
Value
$5.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.87
Value
$5.07
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.