Will HJK Helsinki win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.3K
$130.01
49.7¢ → 92.5¢
+86% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Noavg 49¢ | $905.48 | $923.96 | +$27.72 | 55% 1299-1044 (2343) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 53.5¢ | $161.77 | $272.25 | +$110.48 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 49.8¢ | $289.95 | $96.01 | -$3.16 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
KY Kyn008CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $21.97 | $15.56 | -$6.41 | 50% 191-188 (379) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $11.87 | $12.84 | +$0.97 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 48.1¢ | $1.09 | $1.49 | +$0.41 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
Invested
$905.48
Value
$923.96
PnL
+$27.72
Record
55%
1299-1044 (2343)
Invested
$161.77
Value
$272.25
PnL
+$110.48
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$289.95
Value
$96.01
PnL
-$3.16
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$21.97
Value
$15.56
PnL
-$6.41
Record
50%
191-188 (379)
RN1<$100Invested
$11.87
Value
$12.84
PnL
+$0.97
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.49
PnL
+$0.41
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.