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3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $11K held · ends Dec 31

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$489.13

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 97.4¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares11,293

Combined PnL+$490.61

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.71

Total Shares27

Combined PnL-$1.48

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FrozenParasite	Noavg 93.5¢	$7.2K	$10.4K	+$447.15	53% 356-310 (666)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 87¢	$348	$389.6	+$41.6	73% 2885-1051 (3936)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 96.3¢	$215.08	$216.93	+$1.85	80% 10366-2645 (13011)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$2.19	$0.71	-$1.48	39% 1744-2698 (4442)

FrozenParasite

Invested

$7,201.19

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$447.15

Record

53%

356-310 (666)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$348

Value

$389.6

PnL

+$41.6

Record

73%

2885-1051 (3936)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$215.08

Value

$216.93

PnL

+$1.85

Record

80%

10366-2645 (13011)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.19

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$1.48

Record

39%

1744-2698 (4442)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.