Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $796 held · ends Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$796.26

Combined PnL

$0.77

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 99.8¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$792.03

Total Shares793

Combined PnL+$7.43

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.24

Total Shares317

Combined PnL-$6.66

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Noavg 98¢	$404.22	$412.27	+$7.43	52% 1929-1755 (3684)
ME merod	Noavg 99.9¢	$199.94	$199.94	-$0	55% 1471-1219 (2690)
KO korda77	Noavg 99.9¢	$179.82	$179.82	+$0	52% 2641-2419 (5060)
NL nlpredmttCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.72	$3.64	-$0.36	55% 146-120 (266)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$6.9	$0.6	-$6.3	46% 1531-1778 (3309)

0F62

Invested

$404.22

Value

$412.27

PnL

+$7.43

Record

52%

1929-1755 (3684)

merod

Invested

$199.94

Value

$199.94

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

1471-1219 (2690)

korda77

Invested

$179.82

Value

$179.82

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2641-2419 (5060)

nlpredmttCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.36

Record

55%

146-120 (266)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.9

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$6.3

Record

46%

1531-1778 (3309)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.