Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$58.79

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 99.2¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,060

Combined PnL-$16.53

Yes1 trader

Total Value$115.62

Total Shares1,652

Combined PnL-$42.27

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NL nlpredmtt	Noavg 89.4¢	$596.06	$655.29	-$16.3	55% 146-120 (266)
ME merod	Noavg 99.2¢	$198.57	$198.34	-$0.23	55% 1471-1219 (2690)
KO korda77	Noavg 99.2¢	$178.59	$178.38	-$0.21	52% 2641-2419 (5060)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$1.01	$115.62	-$42.27	42% 1226-1670 (2896)
RI Rin2x	Noavg 99¢	$103.95	$104.05	+$0.21	83% 1437-286 (1723)

nlpredmtt

Invested

$596.06

Value

$655.29

PnL

-$16.3

Record

55%

146-120 (266)

merod

Invested

$198.57

Value

$198.34

PnL

-$0.23

Record

55%

1471-1219 (2690)

korda77

Invested

$178.59

Value

$178.38

PnL

-$0.21

Record

52%

2641-2419 (5060)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$115.62

PnL

-$42.27

Record

42%

1226-1670 (2896)

Rin2x

Invested

$103.95

Value

$104.05

PnL

+$0.21

Record

83%

1437-286 (1723)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.