Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 94¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$8.3K
$922.54
83.6¢ → 93.5¢
+12% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NL nlpredmtt | Noavg 81.3¢ | $5.2K | $5.4K | +$726.16 | 55% 146-120 (266) |
 probability | Noavg 83.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$198.81 | 42% 1226-1669 (2895) |
0F 0F62 | Noavg 96¢ | $575.88 | $563.89 | -$12 | 52% 1929-1753 (3682) |
12 123987456 | Noavg 94¢ | $188 | $188 | -$1 | 46% 1530-1778 (3308) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 94¢ | $169.2 | $168.3 | -$0.9 | 52% 2636-2414 (5050) |
ME merod | Noavg 94¢ | $107.29 | $106.72 | -$0.57 | 55% 1468-1219 (2687) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $32.33 | $60.83 | +$12.28 | 17% 3138-14846 (17984) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $47.5 | $47 | -$0.25 | 83% 1436-286 (1722) |
Invested
$5,211.96
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$726.16
Record
55%
146-120 (266)
probabilityInvested
$1,575.78
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$198.81
Record
42%
1226-1669 (2895)
Invested
$575.88
Value
$563.89
PnL
-$12
Record
52%
1929-1753 (3682)
Invested
$188
Value
$188
PnL
-$1
Record
46%
1530-1778 (3308)
Invested
$169.2
Value
$168.3
PnL
-$0.9
Record
52%
2636-2414 (5050)
Invested
$107.29
Value
$106.72
PnL
-$0.57
Record
55%
1468-1219 (2687)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$32.33
Value
$60.83
PnL
+$12.28
Record
17%
3138-14846 (17984)
Invested
$47.5
Value
$47
PnL
-$0.25
Record
83%
1436-286 (1722)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.